Prediction of Track of Super Cyclone Amphan using WRF-ARW Model

An attempt has been made to study the prediction of track Super Cyclone (SuC) Amphan that formed on 13 May over Southeast Bay Bengal (BoB) and landfall West Bengal-Bangladesh Coast 20 2020 using Advanced Research WRF (ARW) dynamics Weather Forecasting (WRF) model. Model integration carried out two-way interactive nesting domains with resolutions 27 km for domain 1 9 2 respectively covering Bengal. Simulations are performed at an interval 6 hours ICs National Centre Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global forecast system (GFS) 0.25° analysis forecasts. To understand applicability model in predicting along position time, nine real-time numerical forecasts have simulation starting 00 UTC May, 14 15 16 17 18 19 21 2020. The experiments initial time produced best performance intensity which comparable those provided by Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) Regional Specialized (RSMC). tracks based distribution sea level pressure vorticity. shows accuracy increases as lead decreases updated ICs. results obtained from good agreement reported data. experiment SuCAmphan better predictions lead-time 144, 120, 96, 48, 24 hours. demonstrate is capable produce reasonable accuracy. Dhaka University Journal Earth Sciences, Vol. 10(2), 2021, P 35-42